BTC and dominance analysis, 12.05.2021

BTC-USDT, daily chart

Price action: BTC dumped definitively after hitting multiple times the resistance at 59k, where also passes EMA 50. A huge bearish candle hitted 42k level and was greatly rejected above the last macro accumulation zone at 47k. There is no bullish sign though: it is still under the first trendline and especially under EMA 200. Last time price fell under this indicator, price stagnated for about 2-3 months. Until there is not a reversal on this daily chart, it is very difficult to find the next spot where the price would bounce back. The MACD confirms the downtrend from the end of October.

RSI indicator: the RSI line hit a minimum after a lot of months, but the giant red candle could greatly slow down an eventual bounce up of the macro bullish trend.

Volume analysis: confirmation of the price downtrend is given by the red candle without a long succession of green candles.

BTC-USDT, weekly chart

As long as price is above the macro trendline formed by the big dump of May, the situation is still under bullish control. Anyway, the last dump is strong, eventually a bearish continuation is possible. Ideally, it is better to distribute above the middle support between 53 and 42k, that is 47k. It is crucial to take a look to how between May and July price median was the EMA 50: this could be a dynamic level to keep an eye on for an eventual point of entry.

Dominance and market cap, weekly chart

Differently from the dump of May, dominance is still very low. This can be seen as a good sign for the crypto market in general, because investors did not run away from the position in altcoins, that are less secure compared to BTC. As long as the dominance stays in this channel, crypto market is in a safe zone of accumulation. This hypothesis can be underlined also by the total market cap, that is an "index" of the crypto market: it is clearly bullish on the macro as long as it stays above the 1.8 trillions.

Recap: at the time of writing, it is very difficult to find a sweet spot for a long position.